The rupee was only a touch weak ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision on Wednesday as oil prices fell on concerns over the demand outlook after the domestic currency hit a one-month low in the previous session. Dollar.
Bloomberg showed the rupee was trading at 82.7213 per dollar, the lowest in over a month, compared to 82.6162 in the previous session.
Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, said, “Corporate demand led to selloff in the Indian rupee yesterday, taking it down to a level of 82.60, last seen a month ago.”
Corporate dollar outflows and rupee long positions were cited as reasons for the rupee’s fall on Tuesday and pickup in intraday volatility. But an overnight fall in crude oil prices helped the rupee to some extent on Wednesday as India imports over 85 per cent of its oil requirements.
The domestic currency depreciated 25 paise to 82.75 against the US dollar in early trade, PTI reported.
A trader at a Mumbai-based bank told Reuters that while the fall in oil prices would unquestionably help, the positive opening is “more a reflection” of markets, which want to assess whether the rupee’s “unexpected” fall below 82 How durable
Oil prices fell overnight, with Brent crude futures falling below $80 a barrel. Brent oil declined nearly 4 percent on concerns about how demand would develop in the face of uncertainties over the global economic outlook.
“Brent oil was below $80 a barrel, relieving concerns of higher inflation,” Finrex Treasury said. Nevertheless, Asian currencies were down as risk-off sentiment overshadowed lower oil prices. Chinese The yuan, however, was still above 7.00 per dollar. Advisor Mr. Bhansali.
“We have RBI policy today, in which the central bank is expected to hike by 25-35 bps, indicating a possible pause before inflation falls around the world. With a close eye on the rupee at 82- It is expected to trade in the range of 83.” Her words on RBI and future rates,” he said.
Investors focus on the RBI’s policy decision and details of its growth and inflation outlook to be announced on Wednesday, with the central bank widely expected to hike nominal rates by more than 35 basis points.
The impact of the RBI’s policy decision is “quite straightforward”, a Mumbai-based trader told Reuters – a 35-basis point (bps) hike is priced in and will have no impact, while a 25 bps hike would be very negative for the Indian economy. Will be Rupee in current context
Meanwhile, the dollar index – a measure of the greenback’s performance against a basket of currencies, rose further on Wednesday as top US bank officials warned of an impending recession, risk appetite took a hit and boosted the US currency.
Top bankers from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs warned that banks are preparing for an economy that will worsen next year as inflation threatens consumer demand.
Joseph Caparso, head of International and Sustainable Economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Reuters: “We are forecasting recessions in the US, Britain, the euro area and Japan … that’s part of our baseline.”
“(That) would provide more support to the US dollar as a safe-haven currency,” he said.
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