The rupee on Wednesday reversed earlier losses in the session to gain against a stronger dollar after the Reserve Bank of India raised rates for the fifth consecutive time and said inflation was still high.
Bloomberg showed the rupee was last changing hands at 82.5150 per dollar after hitting the day’s low of 82.7725, compared to its previous close of 82.6162, the lowest in over a month.
The domestic currency provisionally settled higher by 3 paise at 82.47 against the US dollar as fall in crude oil prices supported the rupee, PTI reported.
In commodities, Brent crude futures fell 0.6 per cent to $78.86 a barrel after falling below $80 for the second time in 2022 during the previous trading session.
Domestic stocks, however, declined and extended losses for the fourth straight session.
Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, said, “Rupee consolidated at 82.50 after RBI hiked rates by 35 bps today and remained bullish on its comments with the market now looking to close at 50.50 before putting a halt to rate hikes.” Bps is expected.”
The RBI raised its key lending rate by a more modest 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent after three consecutive 50-bps (basis point) hikes to manage price pressures that consistently remained above the upper end of its target band are.
“Indian Rupee is expected to remain in the range of 82-83 for the remaining part of the week. RBI said it will control volatility but not the direction and also said that forward premiums have fallen due to liquidity crunch and today Has started to heal.” said Mr. Bhansali of Finrex Treasury Advisors.
According to RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra, once the dollar flow resumes, the Indian rupee forward premium will increase from its current decade-low level.
Asked by Reuters about the impact of the fall in premium on the spot market, Patra said, “It (lower premium) is telling us that there is a shortage of cash (dollars), but now it is reducing.”
“If you see today the futures premium has started to correct. So the flows are coming back,” Patra said at a press conference after the central bank raised its key repo rate.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed that it was important to make an objective assessment of the rupee’s movement in the context of global and domestic macroeconomic and financial market developments.
Mr Das said that in view of the strengthening dollar, the rupee’s movements have been the least disruptive compared to its counterparts, and the size of foreign exchange reserves is comfortable.
“The story of the rupee has been one of India’s resilience and stability,” the governor said, adding that the appreciation of the US dollar this year has attracted massive depreciation of all major global currencies, including the Indian rupee. extensive attention.
Responding to a gloomy economic picture, long-term bonds and the dollar extended their gains on Wednesday, while oil reversed earlier gains in the session after heavy losses on Tuesday.
The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s performance versus a basket of currencies, rose on Wednesday as senior bank officials in the US warned of an impending recession, weighing on risk appetite and pushing for the US currency to strengthen.
Leading bankers from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs cautioned that while banks are preparing for a worsening economy due to consumer demand threatening inflation next year, this is not the case.
Joseph Caparso, head of International and Sustainable Economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Reuters: “We are forecasting recessions in the US, Britain, the euro area and Japan … that’s part of our baseline.”
“(That) would provide more support to the US dollar as a safe-haven currency,” he said.
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